Statistics
When to Stop and Choose: The Secretary Problem
The secretary problem asks how to maximize the chance of picking the very best candidate when you must decide on each one on the spot. This article explains its rules, why the answ
Statistics
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39 articles found
Statistics
Just Moving People Raised Both Averages: The Will Rogers Phenomenon
The Will Rogers phenomenon is when moving some members from one group to another raises the averages of both groups. This article covers where the name came from and how it works,
Statistics
Counting the Whole from a Few Serial Numbers: The German Tank Problem
The German tank problem asks how to estimate the total number of sequentially numbered items from the serial numbers of just a few. We look at how the Allies used captured tank ser
Statistics
Torture the Numbers and They Will Confess: P-hacking
P-hacking is the practice of analysing data in different ways until a “statistically significant” result appears. We look at what p-values mean, the common ways p-hacking happens,
Statistics
Collecting Chance to Find the Answer: The Monte Carlo Method
The Monte Carlo method estimates an answer by repeating a huge number of random trials and averaging the results. We look at how it was born, how it works in four steps, easy examp
Statistics
Same Numbers, Different Pictures: Anscombe’s Quartet
Anscombe’s Quartet is a set of four datasets whose summary statistics are nearly identical but whose graphs look completely different. This piece covers how it came about, the trap
Statistics
The Illusion That Comes After Choosing: Berkson's Paradox
Berkson's Paradox is the phenomenon in which a false inverse relationship appears between two unrelated traits when you look only at a group filtered by some criterion. This piece
Statistics
The Paradox That Says Switch to Win: The Monty Hall Problem
The Monty Hall problem is a classic conditional-probability puzzle about how to update the odds when new information arrives. This piece covers the host’s rules, why switching wins
Statistics
The Number to Check Before the Evidence: The Base Rate Fallacy
The base rate fallacy is judging from vivid case details while ignoring how common an event usually is. This piece covers Kahneman and Tversky’s research, the cab problem, everyday
Statistics
Why Great Days Are Often Followed by Ordinary Ones: Regression Toward the Mean
After a standout exam or a praised flight, the next result often looks weaker—and after a flop, stronger. Much of that swing is regression toward the mean, not praise or blame. Thi
Statistics
Twenty-Three People Are Enough: The Birthday Paradox
Why is it so likely that two people in a small group share a birthday? This article covers the birthday paradox, the two keys to calculating it, why our intuition misses it, and ho
Statistics
The Illusion That Next Time Will Be Different: The Gambler's Fallacy
If a coin lands heads five times in a row, will the next toss be tails? This article explains the gambler's fallacy, the belief that past results change what comes next, along with