After a standout exam or a praised flight, the next result often looks weaker—and after a flop, stronger. Much of that swing is regression toward the mean, not praise or blame. Thi
The German tank problem asks how to estimate the total number of sequentially numbered items from the serial numbers of just a few. We look at how the Allies used captured tank ser
P-hacking is the practice of analysing data in different ways until a “statistically significant” result appears. We look at what p-values mean, the common ways p-hacking happens,
In this session, I would like to prepare material on how to create a questionnaire and the precautions to take. Generally, a questionnaire is a set of questions that a researcher u
In many naturally occurring sets of numbers, smaller leading digits appear far more often: about 30.1% start with 1, and only about 4.6% with 9. This article explains the definitio
Why does the share of heads get closer to half the more times you toss a coin? This article explains the meaning and principle of the law of large numbers, its history beginning wi
Deduction and induction are key concepts in research, but they can feel unfamiliar and confusing at first. This article explains each method in the simplest possible terms with eas
Data analysis has become an important tool in the modern business environment. In particular, data correlation analysis plays a key role in understanding relationships among multip
Berkson's Paradox is the phenomenon in which a false inverse relationship appears between two unrelated traits when you look only at a group filtered by some criterion. This piece
The ecological fallacy is the mistake of assuming that conclusions drawn from group-level data apply equally to each individual in the group. This article covers how the name arose
Probability sampling randomly selects cases so that every member of a population has a known probability greater than zero of being chosen for the sample; these probabilities need
Why do call-center phones arrive in uneven bursts even when the average is steady? This article walks through the Poisson distribution—from its single-parameter formula and conditi