Statistics
When to Stop and Choose: The Secretary Problem
The secretary problem asks how to maximize the chance of picking the very best candidate when you must decide on each one on the spot. This article explains its rules, why the answ
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General knowledge
A Miracle Comes Once a Month: Littlewood’s Law
Littlewood’s Law is the rule of thumb that an event as rare as one in a million happens to an ordinary person about once a month. This article explains its origins with J. E. Littl
Statistics
Torture the Numbers and They Will Confess: P-hacking
P-hacking is the practice of analysing data in different ways until a “statistically significant” result appears. We look at what p-values mean, the common ways p-hacking happens,
Psychology
I Knew It All Along: Hindsight Bias
Hindsight bias is the mental habit of believing, after something has happened, that we could have predicted the outcome from the start. We look at the experiments that first confir
Statistics
Collecting Chance to Find the Answer: The Monte Carlo Method
The Monte Carlo method estimates an answer by repeating a huge number of random trials and averaging the results. We look at how it was born, how it works in four steps, easy examp
General knowledge
Suspect a Mistake Before Malice: Hanlon’s Razor
Hanlon’s Razor is a rule of thumb that says not to blame malice for what mistakes or foolishness can adequately explain. This piece covers where it came from, why we tend to read o
General knowledge
Anything That Can Go Wrong Will Go Wrong: Murphy's Law
Murphy's Law is the rule of thumb that anything that can go wrong eventually will. This piece covers its origins in the U.S. Air Force's MX981 rocket sled tests and Edward Murphy's
Statistics
The Paradox That Says Switch to Win: The Monty Hall Problem
The Monty Hall problem is a classic conditional-probability puzzle about how to update the odds when new information arrives. This piece covers the host’s rules, why switching wins
Statistics
The Number to Check Before the Evidence: The Base Rate Fallacy
The base rate fallacy is judging from vivid case details while ignoring how common an event usually is. This piece covers Kahneman and Tversky’s research, the cab problem, everyday
Education
Why Is One-to-One Teaching So Powerful? Bloom’s 2 Sigma Problem
Why did students tutored one-to-one outscore 98% of an ordinary class? This piece explains Bloom’s 2 sigma problem: the three teaching methods Bloom compared in 1984, what standard
Statistics
Twenty-Three People Are Enough: The Birthday Paradox
Why is it so likely that two people in a small group share a birthday? This article covers the birthday paradox, the two keys to calculating it, why our intuition misses it, and ho
Statistics
The Illusion That Next Time Will Be Different: The Gambler's Fallacy
If a coin lands heads five times in a row, will the next toss be tails? This article explains the gambler's fallacy, the belief that past results change what comes next, along with